Within 18 months, at the most, Wales will get a new First Minister; and Labour a new leader.
At the risk of repeating myself, there should be no assumption that the person who fills these offices will be the same.
But for the Party that assumes they will remain in control, shouldn’t it be a cause of concern that there is no debate about what the future holds?
Of course there is lots of speculation and gossip within the Cardiff Bay bubble about personalities: Will Leighton get enough nominations to take on Carwyn; Has Andrew lost his appetite; Will Edwina take the advice of those around her and stand etc.
But on the question of what any of these (potential) candidates will do with power there is silence.
“Too early to start campaigning yet”, I am told by those who have the ear of one of the contenders. But with Labour facing certain losses in the next month’s Council elections, am I the only one who thinks we should be hearing more about what those who wish to lead their Party plan to do to bring about a revival?
Ideas Wales has done nothing since its interesting, but ultimately pointless, seminar in Feburary. Wales 2020 has published three interesting pamphlets but has generated little debate.
And the source of debate and ideas outside the Labour Party is little better. The Bevan Society deserves credit for staring this blog, but the IWA has become a prisoner of caution.
Tempting as it is to blame others, culpability rests of the door of those who wish to lead.
Rhodri Morgan has given his party the courtesy of a leaving date. The job has been advertised, so let’s see the CVs – and more importantly lets here the presentations.
It seems at times that no one wishes to offend the First Minister by taking him at his word and planning for his departure. What is everyone waiting for? I’m sure they’re all busy Governing Wales and keeping a coalition together, but they won’t have to worry about it for much longer unless they start thinking, and talking, about the future.
In a brilliant speech to the Labour Party conference in Manchester 18 months ago Bill Clinton told Labour that unless they presented themselves as the agents of change somebody else would fill the gap. “Make no mistake about it”, he said, the question for voters “is not whether you will change. It's how you will change and in what direction.
But at this rate the only change Labour is heading towards is opposition.
Sunday, 13 April 2008
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11 comments:
whilst i agree with you on this we should know what the candidates vision is, I mean do we know what Carwyn thinks about the economy, Andrew Davies about Health or Leighton Andrews views on Education, will it make a difference to who gets the job or to Wales as a whole?
Labour are guaranteed to be at least the largest party after most National Assembly elections and therefore will nominate the First Minister so reality is Labour leader will be Wales First Minister. The fact the candidates will have no public debate of substance or discussion about who takes over from Rhodri Morgan shouldn't surprise us (look at the stich up over Gordon Brown) also says a lot about the political scene in Wales, the politicians, lobbyists and the media are all far to confortable to rock the boat.
"Labour are guaranteed to be at least the largest party after most National Assembly elections".
That's quite a complacent assertion. I don't think the last election was a dip in Labour's fortunes but a terminal decline.
Labour since 97 has lost it's raison d'etre - to represent the working class in Parliament. It's cuddled up to so many millionaires and other assorted reprobates that people know they can't represent them any more.
Who will fill the gap is the big question - I suspect the alternatives will be localised and fairly fluid.
But make no mistake, Labour is looking at opposition in Westminster in 2009 and it's possible that will herald opposition in the Assembly in 2011.
Labour may well be favourites to be the largest party after the next election, but if Labour fell to say 21 or 22 seats, I think Labour may well end up on the opposition benches.
'That's quite a complacent assertion'
maybe but its true, I haven't seen any party make serious sustainable inroads against Labour in 20 years, even Plaid Cymru's high water mark of 17 seats in 1999 assembly elections still left us with Labour in charge.
I agree Labour will loose the next UK Election but as much as i want rid of them in Wales, I just can't see it happening in 2011 or beyond.
Labour will be in opposition when Rhodri leaves. Plaid will use what will obviously be a heated debate on a replacement leader as evidence that Labour are divided, and in a shambles and form a rainbow coalition.
Labour in Wales has a long period of rebuilding and rebranding ahead. You might question why that hasn't already started after worsening results - perhaps the local elections will be the final wake-up call? I doubt that anyone, even inside the party can say what Welsh Labour is "for" in 2008.
What about Eluned M is she out of it?
What if Rhodri decided not to go you just never know with him.
There is still a whispering campaign about Peter Hain.
And Lee you didnt mention the rebel from Merthyr.
Anon is right, in reality we know very little about any of these people,least of all Edwina Hart who is a media recluse.
It really is an uninspiring line up.
Wales needs and deserves some dynamic and inspiring leadership.
Where do we get it from.
"Tempting as it is to blame others, culpability rests of the door of those who wish to lead."
You seem to be the only one who succumbed to the temptation.
Lee, if your willing and The Bevan Foundation says its ok, what about doing some profiles of the main runners for the Welsh Labour Leadership for this blog?
maybe we'll all learn a thing or two about them then.
I think I've said enough.
Welsh Labour certainly deserve to lose if they fail to present a coherent vision of where they want to take this country and its people.
In this vacuum of ideas - where Labour is reliant on an ageing first minister on his way to the retirement home to be its sole public face of stature - it's just as telling and depressing that the opposition are not able to seize the moment.
Wake up Wales!
'In this vacuum of ideas' says anonymous - it is precisely this vacuum that the Bevan Foundation is trying to fill. So, why don't you - and all the others who want to see new ideas - join the Bevan Foundation? We need supporters to carry and increase our work
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