Anyone who spent a few minutes glancing at the local government election results in Saturday's papers couldn't help being struck by the remarkable divergence in results across Wales. There is no doubt that the results were awful for Labour, but even for Labour there were chinks of light in Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend. For every other party there were significant opportunities to celebrate but also the odd downside or two.
The question now is what kind of pattern of political control will we see emerge from the mish mash of results that was May 1st? I'd say the jury is very much out at the moment, and it is very much a case of watch and wait.
BUT, and I think this is a crucial point for the whole future of Welsh politics - political pluralism is here to stay. If these results prove anything they show that the once dominant force of Welsh politics, the Labour Party can lose anywhere. [Labour has also shown over the past 15 years in Wales that it can win anywhere]. For those who still think that coalition government in Cardiff Bay is an aberration, some rethinking is very much in order. Because, at a local level while Labour could reasonably aspire to play a leading role in a dozen or so authorities, if it adopts old ways of thinking in its approach to negotiations, it could end up in opposition in all but a few authorities.
These elections are not only a challenge to Labour, but will challenge all parties to think anew about patterns of political competition and cooperation; and that can only be healthy thing for the future of politics in Wales.
Monday, 5 May 2008
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11 comments:
political pluralism is here to stay
Quite agree. I said as much last May, and this year's results cement it.
I've written about this for my weekly magazine column, but haven't published it on my blog yet. Labour needs to shift its mindset. So, however, do commentators. It's time to stop referring to places like Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr, Caerphilly and even RCT as "strongholds". They are places where Labour - while remaining favourites - are just another competitor.
They are places where Labour - while remaining favourites - are just another competitor.
so you would want the press to alter its mind set, talk about being in denial and not learning lessons, this is blatant spin, so press reports in the future on election results for Labour can be seen as good step on the way to recovery or big victories instead of stagnation and bad losses, and you wonder why people are cynical amd don't vote.
SoS
Let me ask you this: how many times does Labour have to lose its stronghold of Blaenau Gwent before it is fair not to think of it as a stronghold any more? It has effectively been beaten there four times in a row now, yet the same old cliches about fortresses, weighting votes etc, etc keep popping up.
By far the major mindset in need of change here is within Labour itself. But one cannot on the one hand tell Labour to stop being arrogant about presuming these areas will simply return to the fold and yet on the other say that expectations of such a return must be maintained by the commentariat in order to see them dashed.
Everyone plays the expectations game - you are doing it by attempting to keep the bar impossibly high, presumably in order to see more "Labour humbled in its heartlands" stories. I don't say that these areas should be treated as four-way marginals (you'll note that my first comment stipulates that Labour should continue to be regarded as favourites) but if we are serious about discussing a new plurality in Welsh politics then it's time to use a more fitting language.
Few parties have got strongholds anymore - even within counties, there is a wide divergence in support.
What's noticeable is that, even where Labour is the biggest party, it cannot command the support of other parties. That's partly due to their arrogance when in power and lack of imagination when out of power - Labour needs to rethink its whole approach to politics in Wales after 80 of near total control at a local level.
If you look at it Plaid made a big mistake when I listen to Plaid now I hear Labour. they do not even say Plaid anymore , it's we are doing our best.
Carmarthenshire was always going to be different because it always has been.
But why would you want Labour to win now, Carmarthenshire and my area Llanelli has high levels of people claiming Welfare JSA sickness disability mainly due to the old workings of Mines and steel works, what did Labour say to me a few months ago, more people have to work, working doing what.
Interesting you choose Blaenau Gwent as an example for your much embraced plurality politics because in Blaenau Gwent this would mean accepting People's Voice as a politcal party and the dominant force, but in your own words talk about Labour remaining favourites in this area and other Valleys simply prove my point that as I said in my original comments that this is just cynical spin and you remain in denial and it also shows in your remarks about the the press changing tack, stop feeding them these stories then maybe they wouldn't get printed.
I rest my case.
those last comments under anon were mine.
Dafydd Trystan made some interesting and salient points in hie original post. But a Labour in long-term decline in Wales or is this just part of the normal political cycle?
Long-term and terminal decline. In some areas, Labour has suffered critical body blows, losing lots of councillors after suffering record losses in 2004.
What is evident is that the quality of councillor is also declining - Labour is not a good place to be for thinking politicians.
Because of that I feel Labour will struggle to bounce back. Huw Lewis's 2020 vision has been a powder puff of an exercise, designed more to get him into power than revitalise Welsh Labour.
Also relevant is the fact that the non-Labour parties and independents are finding it relatively easy to work together - in stark contrast to Labour's isolation. This is probably due to Labour's past arrogance and I see no sign of this diminishing.
Labour in Wales is suffering primarily from over centralisation. The control freakery relied upon to get the Tories out in 97 has persisted and strangled the radical thinkers out of the party.
Labour has to decide whether it can trust its core membership or not. It can no longer have it both ways.
I'll tell you what is annoying people, three months ago 150 jobs goes at steel plant, Labour says we have now got guarantee's other jobs are safe, 300 jobs goes last month and nothing from Labour just before the elections, Labour should have been shouting thats not right we will sort this out even if they did not mean it, what did we get nothing, then we get the MP saying we are lucky to be getting new jobs, so a bloke goes from perhaps £10 £14 a hour to £5.25 working part time in Morrison's, we are bleeding major jobs and shouting with glee when a bloody retail shop opens.
It's time Labour looks at it's heart lands before these areas look at other parties.
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