Has Wales been short changed in the PBR?

Wales's share of the Treasury's £3 billion public spending bonanza will be £140 million, according to the Treasury's press notice for Wales. Good news, except that the £140 million is only 4.66% of the £3 billion announced, whereas Wales has 5.9% of the UK's population. If the allocation was done by population alone, rather than the Barnett formula which has presumably been used, then Wales's share would have been more like £177 million. On top of this, Wales has already lost a disproportionate number of jobs and has the fastest rising unemployment. Now, if my maths or understanding has let me down, I apologise, but on the face of it it looks very much as if Wales has been short changed by £37 million.

Enjoy the optimism, while it lasts

There's no doubt that the campaign saw moments of poetry, so now for the prose.

Barack Obama is a clever operator. As this interesting insider account of the campaign illustrates, the President elect seems temperamentally well-suited to the strains of governing.

But as Karl Rove, President Bush's evil genius, points out , the expectations generated in the campaign are going to be very hard to deliver.

The office of the Presidency was designed to disappoint. The Founding Fathers knew what they didn't want from a Chief Executive and they designed a system to keep him in his place. They were clever buggers.

As Simon Schama's excellent recent BBC series illustrated, to understand America's future you need to understand its past. And we're about to see it all again as the limits of the office of the Presidency are laid bare.

Sooner or later he'll disappoint.

Sometimes a reminder is good

Yesterday I had the delightful job of revisiting a project that I had had some initial input in starting. Its been six years since I was there. What they have achieved is amazing and they are totally rooted in their community they provide jobs services and opportunities in an ex mining valley. They employ 19 people now -sustainably - and are in fact the biggest employer in their part of the valley. The link in to why I support the Bevan Foundation as one its trustees - and by the way I am not a member of any political party; were the quotes from Bevan in their. literature ,that underpin why they do what they do.
It reminded me that sometimes its good to reflect on what motivates us and what were the things that impressed and took me down the route I have taken in respect of ideals Bevan spoke loudly that "people and regimes bereft of human values do not deserve to be called civilised"
He also said that " for us empowerment meant the use of collective action to transform society and so lift all of us together.Those words apply across the board to me and can fit into what ever Political beliefs you have.
Working together for the common good and remembering what values are important and lasting; I think is the underpinning key to lasting regeneration and yesterday I saw that in spades down at that amazing organisation, that gave me cause to rethink and take a step back to refocus.

I agree. So what's next?

The First Minister's analysis of Labour's problems in Wales is bang on the money.

Of course he's not the first to say that Labour will never win a majority again unless the party reverses the public’s perception that it is anti-Welsh.

But it's important he acknowledges it, not least since it now gives the debate over who will succeed him some focus.

As Rhodri Morgan suggests in his IWA essay, 'winning in the west' will require the party to address the perception that it is hostile to 'rural Wales and ambivalent about how to express its 'Welshness'.

The difficulty with the First Minister's analysis is that he has been the leading apologist for many of the policies he now blames for Labour's perception. He defended Post Office closures and the closure of rural schools. He was silent on the Iraq war and critical of moves to toughen the law around the Welsh language.

The unanswered questions remains, how will his successor be different?

How to get £369,000

Girls, how do you win £369,000? Do the Lottery?

No. If you have any sense you will campaign for equal pay with men, because £369,000 is the average difference in pay between women and men over a lifetime.

So forget the Thunderball and press for fairness and equality at work.

Cold and Poor

A forum on fuel poverty on Wednesday learned how rising fuel prices are hitting consumers hard, with fuel poverty in Wales having more than doubled in the last four years. While energy efficiency measures are important, the real drivers are a combination of low income and high prices. Neither of these are obviously in the gift of the Welsh Assembly Government, but that should not stop some creative thinking and action to do what it can. There is also a vital role for measures to reduce consumption, not only home energy efficiency but also empowering people to manage their consumption. Although some reports have suggested that Scottish and Southern (who own SWALEC, the dominant supllier in South Wales), might reduce prices slightly in the short term, most predict that high prices are here to stay. In which case it's time for some bold and radical steps by the Welsh Assembly Government - like 'block' improvements, like low home insulation prices, like benefit checks for all. You can read my presentation on http://www.bevanfoundation.org/15.html

Story? What story?

The Western Mail has reported today that the Bevan Foundation has pulled out of a conference we were to be involved in on Friday. We've pulled out because it became clear, very late in the day, that the afternoon session of the event was presented as winning support for the Labour Party. We value our independence from any political party extremely highly, and are not prepared to compromise it by any appearance of partiality.

We became involved with the event in the first place because the changing nature of politics in south Wales in the light of huge economic and social change is an important issue and one which it is legitimate for the Foundation to disucss. When questions were raised about it, we did the right thing and withdrew.

All kinds of stupid allegations are now being made about money. For the record, the Bevan Foundation did not receive any money from the Freidrich Ebert Foundation, from Peter Hain or from the Labour Party for this event, nor have we given any money to anyone in connection with it. Our sole input was to email information about it.

Our record over the years is the true test of our independence - anyone who reads our various publications can see for themselves that we are far from supporting any political party, and our events programme has included contributors from all political parties and none.

I stand by our independence and very much regret that a political feast has been made out of what was a right and proper decision. Despite the flack in the media, we've had many messages of support for which thanks.

The C Word

Which one? Take your pick: confusion, capacity…con-trick (granted, that’s two words – but, hey, work with me here).

The latest Bevan Foundation pamphlet by a trio of lobbyists* is a far more nuanced and considered analysis than the previews might have led you to assume. But, in my view, it ultimately fails to knock down the target it sets out to.

Darran Hill, Huw Edwards and Leigh Jeffes take aim at the Archbishop of Wales’ claim that the devolution settlement is complex, confusing and unworkable. “Whilst we agree that the new process is not yet widely understood”, the authors state with masterful understatement, “we do not agree that it is unworkable or that there is a ‘constitutional crisis’”.

The evidence they draw upon to back up their view, however, undermines their central assertion. Here are a few examples of their coded observations (with my own decoding thrown in for measure):

“The number of stages an LCO must pass through has evolved as time has progressed”.
Translation: the system is turning out to be far slower and long winded that was promised

“Urgent attention is needed to make sure the process matches the promise of the system”.
Translation: So much for a settlement that would last a generation, Whitehall is having a laugh by making it up as they go along

“Some LCOs are moving at a painfully slow pace…neither [Environmental Protection of Welsh Language LCOs] examples sheds a particularly positive light on the efficacy of the system”.
Translation: it all seems to fall apart when AMs want to do something controversial

There are many other such elegantly phrased barbs which point to the instability of the settlement. But, as you’d expect from public affairs professionals, they are careful to frame their argument in a way which allows both the Government and the Opposition to draw comfort.

The tasters offered by the Bevan Foundation and the Western Mail , however, focused on a suggestion in the report that it is the lack of ideas for new laws which is holding back the Assembly.

There is some force in the point. Backbench AMs have not been rushing forward with ideas for Measures. But as the report concedes, there are only around 40 backbench AMs compared to over 400 backbench MPs.

The report authors also point the finger of blame on “civic society in general which is clearly failing to provide the ideas and impetus”. Again, up to a point Lord Copper.

In London there is a glut of NGOs with fully worked up proposals looking for a willing backbench sponsor, but how many organisations in Wales have the policy, lobbying and legal capacity to endure the new Welsh law making process?

Not many. There are no doubt many reasons, but chief amongst them is lack of capacity to engage with the process. Unlike the report authors I feel I must declare an interest. I am piloting an LCO though the pre-legislative scrutiny stage in the Enterprise Committee. It has taken a year to get to this stage, and the prospect of getting an Assembly Measure to Royal Assent stage seems a very long way off. Depending on the political dynamics of the next three years it is entirely possible that there’ll be a legislative Parliament in place before the Measure I’m pursuing sees the light of day.

And so to my last C word. At the conference which launched the Bevan Foundation paper the Western Mail’s Martin Shipton made the following point about the 2006 Government of Wales Act:

"Ingenious it may have been - but the point of the exercise was not to create a sustainable devolution settlement, but to paper over the divisions in the Labour Party".

I'll leave that one with you.


* What is that the collective noun for lobbyists?

The Obama Bounce

Great news for America ,and in many ways for the wider world to have someone with good strategic skills and an awareness of how America can work with partners for global good. However will there be effects for us that we haven't yet planned for .

One of the reasons for his victory was the support of the powerful unions in America. This was predicated on him ensuring that he would initiate policies to protect jobs and markets .What will drive that, will be protectionist ,priority American jobs. So firms will be encouraged and incentivised to expand and may be even return to home markets and suppliers.

Our biggest inward investor is America. Here in Wales we have many American owned companies -for example Fords ,ASDA Airbus is reliant on American contracts. If we do see a move to wards protectionism, it will hit not just major companies it will hit all the way down supply chains in both a lateral and vertical way.

I hope that our economic advisers and WAG are preparing some contingency for this, we do need to be exploring with contacts in America if this is on the cards and be ready to deal with it if it happens, we do not want to be unprepared.

Lack of ideas undermines devolution process

It's very rarely that I would disagree with an Archbishop, but a pamphlet we're publishing on Thursday argues that, contrary to Barry Morgan's view that the Government of Wales act is "tortuous and convoluted", it is in fact working quite well. The Assembly IS gaining parliamentary-type powers and there is effective scrutiny of the legislation. However, the fact that something is working well rarely attracts comment or discussion. What is in some ways more newsworthy is that there seems to be a dearth of ideas to translate into legislation - there have only been two petitions of the Assembly to date and the number of AMs putting draft Measures into a ballot is dwindling to zero. An obsession with process at the expense of substance has masked this lack of ideas, yet the poor quality of proposed legislation is potentially much more damaging to devolution than any legislative system, convoluted or otherwise.

The pamphlet will be published on our website http://www.bevanfoundation.org/ on Friday.