Bevan Foundation Blog

What do you have to do get sacked?

2008-07-20T16:52:00.002+01:00

Rhodri Morgan's flagship reorganisation of the NHS is declared a failure - but nobody resigns.

The Assembly Government retreats on rolling out its key education policy - nobody resigns.

WAG's central economic initiative fails to achieve its aim of raising Welsh levels in the poorest parts of Wales - nobody resigns.

A Minister stumbles into a bar with a cigar and is forced out.

Duw help.

Talking up crime

2008-07-18T11:16:00.002+01:00

In recent months not a day has gone past without media reports of violent crime, especially if it involves knives. These have been accompanied by reports of new powers for teachers to search school children for weapons, perpetrators of crime visiting victims in hospital etc. People are understandably afraid - two thirds of people now believe that the crime rate is going up.

A reality check shows a different picture. Surveys of people's experiences of crime and police statistics on reported crime (two different things) both show the crime is DECREASING. The number of violent crimes is also decreasing, with a particularly sharp decrease in serious violence. Only 6% of violent crimes involved use of a knife or similar (e.g. broken bottle). It is also clear that knife crime is concentrated into a small number of (mostly) inner city areas - in Wales, use of knives is mercifully rare. Altogther 897 serious offences in Wales invovled use of a knife.

Any violent crime is to be deplored but we hardly seem to have 'a broken society', a 'knife culture', or any other other labels the tabloids (and some broadsheets) are bandying around. More people were killed or seriously injured in accidents on Wales's roads (1,373 in 2006) than there were knife crimes. Where are the headlines about that?

We would do well to think about whose interests are served about whipping up a panic about crime, disorder and a 'broken society'.

Unemployment up in Wales

2008-07-17T22:37:00.002+01:00

Didn't take long for Wales's so-called strong position on unemployment to collapse in the face of toughening economic times did it? Figures released earlier this week show that the overall unemployment rate in Wales is now marginally above GB's, having been marginally below it a year ago. Still, at 3.3% for males and 1.2 % for females it is a long way off the horrendous figures of the 1980s and early 1990s and the changes aren't huge. But spare a thought for the men of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent, where male unemployment stands at 5.6% and 6.6% respectively (women's unemployment is also high here too). Unemployment has an appalling effect on people's health (mental and physical) and also almost guarantees that children in unemployed households will be brought up in poverty.

Unison and Unite stand up for low paid

2008-07-15T14:49:00.003+01:00

Local government workers in UNISON and Unite are planning to strike on 16 and 17 July over a 2.45% pay offer, the latest in ten years of below-inflation pay awards. This will be followed on the 18 July by a day of protest for better pay in the NHS organised by Unite.

Everyone recognises that public services need to be modernised and reformed. People’s expectations always change and services need to be renewed accordingly. In part that means public service workers need to be challenged and motivated to respond to user needs.

But that can’t be accomplished by targets or markets. Instead workers need to be well rewarded, held in high esteem because of the socially valuable and difficult job they do and held to account through systems of greater democracy, voice and user participation.

As Compass’s Zoe Gannon recently wrote on Comment Is Free and the Compass website: In 1997, Labour came to power under the promise of protecting and renewing the public services, yet throughout this period they have failed to recognise that the quality and scope of public service provision depends on the commitment and motivation of public service workers. Hence for the last 10 years, the government have forced below-inflation pay awards, effectively pay cuts, on certain sections of public service workers.

This latest offer of 2.45% for the majority of the 1.5 million strong NJC workforce has triggered a vote by UNISON and Unite members to strike.Despite the popular myth that all public sector workers have done well under Labour, some have consistently fallen behind on prices and average earnings - including civil servants, prison officers and local government workers. Year on year, through below-inflation pay rises, market-based reforms and centrally driven targets, public sector workers have been demoralised, undermined and devalued. Yet last week I felt a glimmer of hope as the government released its latest report entitled "Excellence and fairness: achieving world-class public services". This paper argues strongly that: "Fostering a new professionalism in the public service workforce, which combines increased responsiveness to users, consistent quality in day-to-day practices, higher levels of autonomy from central government wherever those at the front line show the ambition and capacity to excel and greater investment in workforce skills."Here, the government clearly recognises the important role that public services workers play in service provision. In fact in many instances they are the service: there is nothing beyond them and the provision is dependent on their skills and commitment. This was preceded by a speech by Gordon Brown on social mobility, stating "the great test of our time - to build a fairer, more prosperous and upwardly mobile Britain". Ignoring the fact that this speech pretends again that social mobility only means people going up - this report and this speech show the admirable goals that we could achieve. But when juxtaposed with the below-inflation pay offer, we see a clear disconnection between the rhetoric and reality of this government. All that is highlighted in the speech and in the report are only really possible through fostering and developing public services, which cannot be achieved without the workforce. If you look at local government workers, it is clear that they have delivered beyond expectations - local services have been a success story - with a high proportion of councils rated excellent, good or improving by the audit commission, these have exceeded treasury targets for efficiency savings.

We need to recognise that decent increases in pay are affordable - the popular argument that pay needs to be held down to combat inflation is disputed by economists - and that it is the staff input that has improved local government performance, and service provision across the board. Public service workers don't want to have to strike, they want to carry on doing their jobs, but in an environment that recognises their contribution. It's not really much to ask, but it's clearly more than the government is willing to offer.

Most of the people who are striking over pay are in fact women and among the lowest-paid in society, and this effective pay cut will no doubt impact on Brown's flagship child poverty targets and on WAGs targets in the same area.

The situation is only made worse by the government's timidity in tackling the bonus culture in the City and excessive executive pay.It stay silent on these issues but is happy to hold down the pay of some of the least well-off.

Compasses' electoral analysis highlights that the 4 million voters that left Labour since 1997 were largely public service workers. If Brown wants to win them back in the two short years before a general election, he needs to reinvigorate these workers not alienate them.

Bordering on insanity

2008-07-10T22:56:00.003+01:00

Interesting report from the House of Commons Welsh Affairs Select Committee on cross-border issues in the NHS, which has arisen not because the MPs are all anti-devolutionists (granted some are) but because of the very real problems that people living along the border with England seem to be experiencing - being told to get their treatment in Wrexham or Cardiff rather than Hereford, for example, or being told the budget to treat them has been 'used up'. Dismissing these issues as 'oh well, it is the inevitable result of devolution' is just not good enough. The issues are, of course, the result of devolution, but failing to deal with the anomalies that arise for patients - who quite rightly think they have a National Health Service - is typical bureaucratic nonsense. The patients are the ones who matter. It is the responsibility of governments on both sides of Offa's Dyke to make sure they get the services they need.

No Progress on Poverty

2008-07-10T22:25:00.005+01:00

The latest Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, published today, paints a stark picture of poverty and disadvantage. What has grabbed the headlines is the usual 'grot spots' of the Heads of the Valleys, inner cities and sink estates and, less well recognised, North Wales's seaside resorts.

But the report highlights two features that have had less attention. First, the lack of progress since the last index in 2005. Out of the 190 areas whcih were the most deprived three years ago, just 24 have improved enough to move out of the worst 10%. Of course tackling poverty and deprivation is a long term process and the very nature of the index means that somewhere has to be in the worst 10%. But this should cause the Assembly Government to reflect on whether Communities First / Next is enough alone (which it isn't - see below) and start to join up its Communities First policies with its other policies - most importantly on economic development and education.

Second, the report points out that only some disadvantaged people live in disadvantaged areas. For example, the 10% of areas which are the most income deprived only include 20% of Wales's poor people. 80% of income deprived people actually live elsewhere. Relying on Communities First / Next as the sole means of tackling poverty and disadvantage is not going to help the majority of disadvantaged people. This means that Wales needs a proper anti-poverty strategy, which covers all people and all parts of Wales. We have an apology for a child poverty strategy, but that is all.

Time for some action.

Great Green Ideas

2008-07-08T15:37:00.002+01:00

At a discussion about sustainable communities yesterday it seemed that at long last there is some 'big thinking' beginning to happen, which could potentially change the way that people live and work to be less damaging to the environment. Ideas such as a large-scale shift to 'agile' working in the public sector, which could cut travel to / from meetings and to / from work; environmental upgrades to homes in the same way as block improvements to housing; and 'accessibility tests' for all new developments were amongst some of the ideas. The debate was centred around a Bevan Foundation report published 18 months ago, called Setting the Agenda, so it was good to see it still has some currency. Watch out for more (possibly) in the Assembly Government's sustainable development scheme to be published in the autumn, called One Wales One Planet - shame about the title though.

Healthy lunch misses the mark

2008-07-04T19:49:00.007+01:00

Just cleaning out the goo from my kids' lunch bags (a unique mixture of uneaten crusts, apple core, crushed crisps and a biscuit wrapper) when I came across a leaflet from the Welsh Assembly Govermnemnt telling me what to put in their lunches - and it's NOT sandwiches, apples and crisps.

Amongst the various suggestions was the bright idea to 'cook extra pasta for supper' so you can use it to make salad the next day. How weird I thought, pasta for supper! Supper in our household means a snack before bedtime. And then I remembered. Supper is what posh people call tea or dinner. And pasta is what my gran called spaghetti. Did the bright spark who wrote this leaflet not pause to think about its target audience who I can guarantee don't have 'home cooked pasta' for 'supper'.

Meanwhile, the school canteen offers chips, pizza and hot dogs every lunchtime, so any lovingly prepared pasta salad will surely end up in the bin anyway. The Western Mail reports another conference about the fat-laden diets and obesity facing children. Rather than waste money on welll meaning but utterly useless leaflets telling parents how to feed their kids, let's have good quality school meals provided FREE to all children. That would at least ensure they got one wholesome meal day, irrespective of whether they eat chips or pasta for 'supper'.

Oh, the leaflet was however quite useful in stopping the goo spreading.

The real brain drain

2008-07-04T18:06:00.004+01:00

Great to read the report in today's Western Mail that the University of Wales is getting its head out the sand with what sounds like a really good idea to stop the 'brain drain' from Wales. The idea that academics can and indeed should give something back to the people who fund it is, unbelievably, still rejected by some in our Universities who regard their positions in Wales as no more than a temporary perch on the road to greater personal glory. So this is a really great idea and I wish it every success.

The next step is for academics inspire and encourage all those people with plenty of brains in Wales who just don't think about going to University or who are detered by the cost. The talent lost because too few people from working class backgrounds in Wales don't go on to higher education is the biggest brain drain of them all.

One Wales One Year On

2008-07-04T17:34:00.002+01:00

So, it's just about a year since the One Wales agreement was, well, agreed. But is this coalition government any different to the Labour governments of the previous 8 years? Most obviously, various Plaid pet projects are now moving forward, such as the All Wales Convention and free entry to Cadw establishments. But has it made a difference to Labour? I think it has, not least because over the last year we've seen a lot more bold actions, from free hospital car parking and a shake-up of health bodies, to demanding the electricity suppliers account for their actions.

There are two big weaknesses. First, economic and labour market policy, which is surely one of the worst policy areas for years. Whatever you might have thought of A Winning Wales (which was not a lot) and the shake-up of WDA and WTB, at least there was SOMETHING. Now, there is an appalling vaccuum. At a time when Wales needs a clear direction and firm action we get nothing. Whilst there were understandable reasons for the allocation of Ministerial roles, IWJ is hardly cutting the mustard in his portfolio.

Second, where is the challenge and scrutiny from the opposition? The new committee system is fine in some ways but means that great chunks of policy go unquestioned, whilst the opposition just don't seem to be asking the right questions in plenary.

Let's see what the next year brings.

Welfare state withers before our eyes

2008-07-02T10:29:00.005+01:00

60th Anniversary of the Welfare State? Pah! It is withering before our eyes. Take this example.

You might think that at a time when someone cannot work because they are terminally ill they would get financial support from the state. Not in the latest round of welfare reforms they won't. At a conference last week, a speaker from RNID explained that the new Employment Support Allowance, which is shortly to replace Incapacity Benefit, will be paid at a lower rate during the first 13 weeks of a claim. If at the end of this period someone is assessed as being eligible for the higher rate, their claim isn't going to be backdated no matter what their circumstances, even if they are terminally ill.

The few claimants who are deemed eligible for ESA, much trumpeted as providing more money for those who 'deserve it', then switch to the new rates. But the RNID speaker pointed out that couples who are required to undertake work-related activity will actually be worse off than at present by £12.85 a week less than if they were on IB, again even in cases of terminal illness.

Undoubtedly there is a need for more help for people to find and keep work, but penalising people at one of the most distressing and vulnerable times in life is, bluntly, harsh and stupid.

Where is the protest? Silence all around ....

Feel the heat!

2008-07-02T10:13:00.004+01:00

Rising fuel prices have hit the headlines recently with predictions of further increases to come - 30 or even 40 per cent according to some commentators. While higher bills affect everyone, the people hardest hit are vulnerable households. Even in 2006, long before the latest round of price rises, about one in five households in Wales was 'fuel poor'. Fuel poverty is a result of high bills, because of high prices and energy inefficient homes, and low incomes, and it is proving very hard to tackle. So it was great to see some really good ideas at a National Energy Action awards scheme last week, where I was a judge. The deserved winner was the Robert Owen Credit Union http://www.romcul.co.uk/ in Newtown, who use their credit union services to allow people to pay fuel bills by direct debit (usually cheaper), to get dual fuel deals, and to switch suppliers as well as pointing them to advice on energy efficiency. This is one of those ideas that is so good you wonder why it is not being rolled out more widely.

Childcare and welfare reform

2008-06-25T11:44:00.004+01:00

Yesterday I was thinking about what to say at a conference on Thursday about welfare reform in Wales (see the Bevan Foundation website for details) when one of my children gave me a leaflet about local childcare over the summer holidays. Good news - there are two venues which will offer child care. But on closer reading, not so good - the centres are only open from 9 til 5, they close on 22nd August, and they are only available for over 8s. On top of that, both venues are outside the town centre, meaning two bus rides if you don't live in the neighbourhood.

So, if you work anything more than 9.30 til 4.30 - and let's face it most people do, if you need to work between 23rd August and 3rd September when the kids go back to school, or have any children under 8, you may as well give up any ideas about working because there is nothing there for you.

This abysmal state of affairs is in one of the 'inactivity hotspots' where there were more than 2,000 lone parents in 2001, a high proportion of whom are not working. Lone parents are one of the key targets of the government's welfare reforms, with parents of over 10s being switched to Jobseekers' Allowance this autumn and threatened with loss of benefits if they don't find work. But what parent - lone or otherwise - will risk looking for a job without some assurance of childcare for the summer holidays?

Getting people off benefit needs more than threats - it needs the right social set up to support people which includes that cinderella of services, childcare. Without it, welfare reform - and efforts to combat child poverty - are doomed to fail.

In Scandinavia, good maternity provision and then good childcare, is the norm and enables men and women to work on equal terms. The Bevan Foundation called for free, universal childcare back in 2005, only to be pooh poohed.

What more does it take to get the Welsh Assembly Government to wake up to this problem?

Jobs Crunch in Wales

2008-06-23T16:17:00.002+01:00

According to the Royal Bank of Scotland's review of the economy in Wales, jobs have been shed from the private sector at a record rate, with only the East Midlands losing a larger proportion. It's not clear from the report why this is the case - but Wales has long been vulnerable to tough economic times. I suspect that as well as the continuing contraction of manufacturing jobs in the bottom end of financial services are also on the way out as well.

So, what do we have from the Welsh Assembly Government to meet these challenges? Do we have an up to date long term strategy focused on achieving growth and jobs. Er, no. Do we have a strategy for protecting and enhancing what's left of our manufacturing. Not yet. And do we have a statement on how the Assembly government is responding in these straightened times? Must've missed it.

Instead we have a conslutation paper issued two and a half years ago. Full stop. Come on Ieuan Wyn Jones - what is the problem?

Link to the RBS report - http://www.rbs.com/content/economic/downloads/pmi/wales.pdf

Rout out the racists

2008-06-23T12:56:00.004+01:00

Well done to the Conservative party for dealing swiftly with racist comments, first, by Alan Cairns (which didn't make the BBC UK news) and then by one of Boris Johnson's special advisers (which did).

And, yes, this is a pro-Tory comment on the Bevan Foundation blog please note.

These kinds of comments are not just casual slips of the tongue, nor even someone not quite getting the politically correct phraseology right, but reveal a deep-rooted contempt for people different from the White British norm. These comments are unacceptable, who ever says them, in which ever party (or none) and should be dealt with accordingly.

What is interesting, however, is whether the Conservative Party, which holds British nationhood so close to its heart, really is capable of developing a multi-racial way of thinking or whether those foolish enough to have loose tongues will be dealt with whilst the rest who want to 'send them home' carry on in private.

Rights and Freedoms

2008-06-20T15:18:00.002+01:00

How much do you value your rights and freedoms?In resigning his seat and forcing a by-election, that's the question David Davis has been asking us over the past week. Regardless of whether this was the best way to do it, it is a pertinent question and one which needs to be answered.Unlock Democracy, and Charter 88 before it, have spent 20 years campaigning for democracy, rights and freedoms.

As a former Welsh representative on the board of Charter 88 this is a cause very close to my heart. Gordon Brown's plans to extend the amount of time individuals can be detained by the state without charge to 42 days, should not be dismissed out of hand ,my problem is with the way he is going about it. This policy was not mentioned in Labour's manifesto. In the face of a backbench rebellion, the government only got this legislation through the House of Commons by the slimmest of margins. Now they could bypass the House of Lords completely through use of the Parliament Act.No country that prides itself on being a democracy should be able to abolish fundamental human rights without cross-party consensus. No responsible government should seek to do so in the first place.So I agree with David Davis that the time has come to draw a line in the sand, his method is another discussion. Fundamental to that is to make the case for a Bill of Rights and, ultimately, a written constitution to limit the powers of the state. This is long long overdue

Who cares about children in care?

2008-06-18T09:07:00.003+01:00

I've been very busy recently hence the lack of posts. One of the things I have been doing is looking at policy on children in Wales. In amongst all the fuss about sugar pills, alcohol abuse by 13 year olds and hoodie crime, I have come across some truly appalling statistics about children who are in care - otherwise known as 'looked after'.

In March 2006 nearly FIVE THOUSAND children were looked after by local authorities, mainly in foster care. Foster care may give some children a secure home but a staggering 13 per cent of children had more than three foster care placements a year. Hardly surprisingly, the effects of being 'looked after' on children are not good. They suffer poorer health and by the age of 16 less than half had at least one GCSE or GNVQ. By the age of 19, only only 40 per cent were in education, training or employment.

These are children who are already vulnerable and damaged in some way - otherwise they wouldn't be in care in the first place. Not only do they deserve much much better than this, but we are surely stacking up problems for the future by failing to give them the care they need.

I don't expect this will generate lots of comments - social policy issues rarely do - but at least I have said my piece.

Running on empty?

2008-06-11T10:28:00.006+01:00

The head of one of the World's biggest oil companies has stuck his neck out to warn that oil prices could double again before we know it

In today's Independent the head of the Russian state energy firm Gazprom said we can expect £2-per-litre petrol. It is hard to see how this won't lead to a global slump.

Arguments about cutting fuel tax entirely miss the point as it would take a significant drop in fuel duty simply to keep up with the rising price of oil.

Ten years ago a barrel of the black stuff was trading at $13 a barrel. Five years ago it had doubled to $25. It hit nearly $140 last week.

The real issue is how do we make our economy resilient to oil shocks.

It is not just the price of petrol that is affected. Our economy is heavily dependent on oil. The price of gas and the price of steel are all closely linked to it – so the cost of building and heating homes is going up. The cost of building roads is set to rocket - the price of Tarmac has alone is up by 25%

And we all know from our weekly shop the price of food has risen sharply. It is closely linked to the rising price of fertiliser and animal feed – all of which rely on oil for their production. And of course there’s the cost of moving goods around.

Around 95% of our transport system is dependent on oil. We’ve been used to fuel costing the same as mineral water and we have designed our towns and cities around the assumption that we can all hop in the car.

But not everyone can. As I point out in today's Western Mail, in communities like Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr, where 35% of families are car-less, many low-income families feel forced to “invest” in a car to access jobs and services. And as the cost of petrol goes up it will be the families on tight budgets that are hit the hardest.

We've got to shift our transport system away from oil dependence. People can dismiss the need to respond to the challenge of climate change because it is an issue for tomorrow, but oil is an issue for today

You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours in academia

2008-06-09T08:48:00.005+01:00

According to a report in Saturday's Guardian (link below) the quality of academics' output is to be evaluated using a fantastic new sophisticated system - the number of times they quote each other's work. Yup, this counting of how many times one person's article in a learned journal mentions their mates (Havinalaff 2006, Swindle 2004 etc) is the product of the UK's finest minds. On the basis of this highly sensitive, totally uncorruptable method, billions of pounds of public money will be allocated.

(The fact that their articles - paid for by public money - are published in journals that then require a subscription costing several hundred pounds so that ordinary people can't read them is another irritant but I'll save that for another day. And of course they'll be all the more unreadable because of the stream of citations (Heresy 2005)).

Is this seriously the only way that academics can assess the quality of research work? Ahem, what about things like - impact on society's well being, contribution to human knowledge?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/08/education.highereducation

A Song for Wales?

2008-06-04T13:51:00.004+01:00

This post has been delayed by technical gremlins but is a matter of national importance ... the UK has come last again in Eurovision and even Sir Terry has threatened to resign when the musical equivalent of the Warsaw Pact saw a Russian victory. But before we launch a vocal cold war I have a solution ... an Independent Wales! I'm not normally a proponent of breaking up the United Kingdom but this is serious. This wouldn't just mean a song for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland but if Andorra or Monaco can have an entry then why not the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands and I think a strong case could be made for the Isle of Wight ... Bardsey Island might be pushing it a bit though. Although if we could repopulate it with monks gregorian chanting is quite popular at the moment.

There is of course the small problem of whether the disaggregated components of the UK would actually vote for each other but if the countries formally known as Yugoslavia can manage it why not us? And we don't even need a referendum ... this is just the sort of thing the Assembly's petition committee should be considering. And all I need are nine of you to sign my petition ...

Bottom again Wales must do better

2008-06-03T10:37:00.003+01:00

Its official we in Wales have the lowest economic growth rate in the UK during the Tony Blair decade that began in 1997. Official UK Government figures included in a report on competitiveness in Northern Ireland place Wales at the bottom of the economic performance league behind all other 11 UK regions. The table is headed by London, followed by the south-east of England. Northern Ireland is in third position and Scotland is seventh.
All the efforts to get people back to work, have only resulted in many of the new jobs created being low paid, and are not producing enough added value to the economy.
We are just not performing as well as we should in the education stakes either – it’s clear Wales is under-performing in comparison with England and many other countries. Every year we are told exam results are improving, but what matters is how they compare with what is being achieved in other countries. In the business sphere there is a sense that that a lot of vocational courses taught in further education colleges do not reflect the needs of the jobs to be filled in the Welsh labour market. The two sides need to communicate more perhaps.
Dylan Jones Evans has been banging the drum for more spend on science and technology: we are way behind Scotland and Ireland on that front.
The support for new business and growth business has been revised and there appears to be less not more for this important sector to create new jobs at local level, this despite the nice words coming from WAG around business support.
We have to look at our economic policy in Wales over the last decade ,look at who has been advising , look at what has worked and what hasn't and if these advisers are not cutting the mustard , then we have to listen to those who can.
We need a larger private sector, that's obvious , that's where jobs and wealth creation are birthed. We are far too reliant on public sector jobs . The first step towards generating wealth, improving skills, encouraging entrepreneurship, and fostering greater competitiveness is to engage with the business community. This is a priority and needs to be more than a cursory meeting of the Business Partnership Council ,CBI and FSB.
The priority needs to be not just in WAG but also at local government level. More needs to be invested in economic development If you look at the departments across Wales you find that these departments are often the Cinderellas.
If we want prosperity we have to up skill our workforce, develop our SME sectors, encourage business including social enterprise and may be focus the government on action rather than debate on referendums and expenses.

Helping the planet and the poor?

2008-05-26T14:36:00.010+01:00

Why shouldn't an OAP living on an estate in Ammanford will be able to sell off their share of unused carbon to a businessman from Pontcanna who wants to fly from Cardiff to Ynys Mon?

That would be one of the outcomes of a personal carbon trading scheme backed by MPs on the Commons Environmnetal Audit Select Committee today

A system of carbon rationing could have economic benefits for the poorest. After all it is not those on the lowest incomes who cause the greatest envionmental harm.

The cross-party report acknowledges that unless we act now to cap our emissions there will be an economic slump equivalent to both World Wars and the Great Depression all rolled into one.

As the Stern report pointed out it would cost much less to prevent runaway climate change than to seek to live with it.

But such long-term concerns threaten to be put aside as panic spreads about short-term economic worries. As the editorial in today's Guardian points out:
"Cutting emissions will not win back Labour's lost voters in Crewe. But it must be done. This is the moment for courage"

Will there be life after 60 for the NHS?

2008-05-11T14:39:00.026+01:00

In a couple of months time the NHS will celebrate its 60th anniversary. The memory of Nye Bevan will evoked again and again as as the crowning achievement of the 1945 Government is celebrated.

But as I've found out over the last few months, the Health Service is in turmoil.

Like most people who consider themselves to be on the centre left I strongly believe in the founding principles of the NHS. When presented with anecdotal evidence of failings by the Health Service and its staff I have been amongst the first to make an excuse.

But my grim experience of the NHS maternity service in the last few months has left me pondering some very uncomfortable questions.

Perhaps I have been naive in not realising the depth of the difficulties facing the NHS (after all there have been no shortage of warnings), but I was deeply shocked by the resignation of the staff towards the sub-standard nature of the care that is all too often administered.

When I was a journalist I was wary of over using the word crisis, but I can think of no better way of describing the state of the NHS. Not simply in operational terms, but strategically.

In the face of an ever demanding consumer mindset, can the NHS adapt quickly enough to rising expectations to prevent middle class flight? That I think is one of the biggest challenges.

Those who can afford it (at a push) are routinely going elsewhere for care when they can.

For example, to avoid the prospect of an amniocentesis test for Down Syndrome, couples are increasingly prepared to pay £180 for the less invasive and more accurate nuchal scan at private health care centres. Once introduced to the world of private medicine many return to it in times of uncertainty when the NHS is found wanting. Meanwhile those who cannot afford it are effectively left with no choice.

It is not simply a matter of a gap in provision. I won't self-indulgently list my own gripes but I doubt very much the problems I encountered are restricted to Cardiff and Vale (clearly they are not), or indeed to maternity services. Some of the problems I encoutered were localised, others suggest there a deeper systemic malaise. In fact, a senior nurse in Wales' leading hospital told me recently that patients routinely 'slip through the net'.

The flow to private providers may only be a trickle now, but there's a danger that it will become a hemorrhage if the support of middle income groups for the NHS is eroded.

Let us not fall back into the familiar narrative here, it is not simply a matter of the rich having choice and the poor having none, many of the people turning the private sector have to borrow money but in desperation feel they have no choice.

It will become increasingly difficult to protect the services relied upon by the poorest if the allure of the Private Sector and the opportunism of the Right undermine the broad consensus which sustains the NHS.

As the NHS reaches its 60th birthday some unpalatable questions need addressing.

It is not just a matter of funding:

Doctors, nurses and midwives must ask themselves if they always give the best care that they can;

professional bodies and trade unions must examine whether their stranglehold on the
NHS is in the long-term interests of their members or the public;

politicians who enjoyed the easy kill of the internal market must show how in its absence the NHS can respond to patient demand;

and voters must confront the uncomfortable reality that if we want public services to meet our demands as modern consumers we cannot rely on solidarity alone to be sustain them.

I don't pretend to have the answers. But if the NHS is to be more than a fall back service for those who cannot afford to go private, the Welsh political elite must acknowledge the problem and engage with the search for solutions.

What do the local election results mean?

2008-05-05T12:10:00.002+01:00

Anyone who spent a few minutes glancing at the local government election results in Saturday's papers couldn't help being struck by the remarkable divergence in results across Wales. There is no doubt that the results were awful for Labour, but even for Labour there were chinks of light in Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend. For every other party there were significant opportunities to celebrate but also the odd downside or two.

The question now is what kind of pattern of political control will we see emerge from the mish mash of results that was May 1st? I'd say the jury is very much out at the moment, and it is very much a case of watch and wait.

BUT, and I think this is a crucial point for the whole future of Welsh politics - political pluralism is here to stay. If these results prove anything they show that the once dominant force of Welsh politics, the Labour Party can lose anywhere. [Labour has also shown over the past 15 years in Wales that it can win anywhere]. For those who still think that coalition government in Cardiff Bay is an aberration, some rethinking is very much in order. Because, at a local level while Labour could reasonably aspire to play a leading role in a dozen or so authorities, if it adopts old ways of thinking in its approach to negotiations, it could end up in opposition in all but a few authorities.

These elections are not only a challenge to Labour, but will challenge all parties to think anew about patterns of political competition and cooperation; and that can only be healthy thing for the future of politics in Wales.

Women and Drink and Arrests

2008-05-02T10:25:00.005+01:00

THE number of women arrested for being drunk and disorderly has increased nearly seven-fold over the past five years in Gwent.The UKs biggest rise in women arrested for the offence was in Gwent, where 190 women were arrested in the past year, compared to 29 between 2003 and 2004.New figures also showed the number of women arrested for being drunk and disorderly in Dyfed-Powys had increased from 65 five years ago to 120 last year – but there was no increase in South Wales.
According to the research by Channel Four News Online, Gwent showed the second biggest increase in the UK for women arrested for being drunk and disorderly. It was second only to the West Midlands, which reported a 12-fold hike from 59 arrests five years ago to 731 last year.
The statistics for 2007/08 only covered 11 months of the year, so the full picture is likely to show even higher increases.

What on earth is fueling this? Campaigners say pubs and clubs are deliberately targeting women with cheap drinks offers and free entry in a bid to encourage them to drink more. But prices are less in most parts of Europe and this is not the pattern. What circumstances or culture is different in Gwent . The whole culture of hard drinking among younger women and younger men is a trend that I feel needs some good rigorous research , we need to understand why getting "slammed" is an objective of more and more young women in particular. The health implications are serious , women 's bodies cannot deal with alcohol in the same way that their male counter parts can. May be this is an area WAG would like to commission Bevan to investigate.

Channel 4 News online asked all 52 police forces in the UK for details of the number of women that had been arrested for D&D offences in the past five years. Although 38 forces replied to the survey, only 21 were able to provide like-for-like figures over the five year period:Increase in arrests West Midlands: 1138 per cent Gwent: 578 per cent Leicestershire: 135 per cent. See their web site for more details.